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binary solo said:

That makes no sense. If PS4 had a baseline of 600k/month at $399 (and the international equivalents) they would never drop the price. The fact is at any given price there comes a point where the market saturates and sales fall away sharply. Interestingly PS3 sold ~23 million consoles during the time it was at or above $399. PS4 has very little time left before it gets to that level and sales will fall away if the price doesn't come down. The market has been trained to expect regular price cuts and PS4 cannot go more than 2 years without one and retain a high levels of sales. Because of the market share swing towards PS4 this gen, it could sell up to 30 million at $399 and remain selling at reasonable levels, after all it only needs a mere 11.5 million in sales this year to get that. But regardless of what people say about profits coming first and total sales don't matter as long as there's profits the fact is both matter. The sharemarket would not look kindly on 2015 being a significnat down year, even a flat year would be a concern. It would worry that Sony's flagship product is in trouble. So Sony needs to maintain and improve sales momentum as well as achieve profits in order to keep shareholders happy and keep the share price bouyant.

The early part of the year will be down until there's a price cut. I think Sony will go straight to $299 and the holiday sales explosion that results will cause the year to be well up. However Sony could go to $349 and just try to compromise between profits and sales and accept a fairly flat year. I think the first sing of whether Sony intends to go to $299 or $349 will be in it's full year financial report in April when it will also announce projections for PS4 shipments through to March 2016. If it projects ~15 million shipments from March to March then the price cut will be $50. If it projects 17 million+ shipments from March to March then we're looking at $299. Dunno when SOny's full year reporting date is expected to be, but mark that date in your calendar for the price cut speculations to begin.

@600k/month they would never drop the price????

You do realize that 600k/month is basically just 7.2M/year right? throw in boosts and you are looking at 10M/year. Unless Sony is content with selling no more than 10M PS4s then they should keep the price at $400.

And I don't think you realize that we are saying the same thing. I am saying that the PS4 baseline will go back yo whatever it was on neutral months last year and will stay there until there is a price drop or Start to drop eventually if the price remains the same.