Shadow1980 said:
Not trying to be mean or anything, but your writing style is somewhat difficult to parse (is English your first language?). I think I get most of what you're trying say, so here goes: Sales from the 90s & 00s is still relevant today, because history reveals consistent patterns about why systems sell the way they do (not specific numbers, but relative sales as well as sales curves). Saying that only the previous generation is worth of consideration when discussing curren-gen sales is a claim that lacks any merit. And I don't appreciate the insinuation that I use historical data merely because it supposedly suits my personal opinions. On the contrary, I go where the data leads me, and historical precedent demonstrates that delayed peaks are rare and when they happen it's during unusual conditions. The U.S., Japan, and Europe collectively represent 85% of global console sales. The U.S. alone represents 40% of global console sales and Europe about another 35%, so those two alone will influence the global peak for home consoles considerably. Furthermore, the economic situation has little bearing on console sales. PS3 & 360 sales actually peaked during the recession and overall game sales remained strong, demonstrating that the console market is largely recession-proof. The 360 & PS3 were by no means lacking in strong titles early in the console cycle. By the time of the 360's third birthday in the U.S., the following games were released for the system: COD2, Oblivion, Dead Rising, Saint's Row, GRAW, Rainbow Six: Vegas, Gears of War, COD3, Crackdown, BioShock, Mass Effect, Halo 3, Assassin's Creed, COD4, Fable II, Fallout 3, Left 4 Dead, Gears of War 2, COD: World at War, and GTAIV. I could provide a longer list if you want. In any case, the 360 & PS3 were not hurting for good software early in their lives. So, your software argument doesn't hold up. Finally, regarding your final point, by that reasoning sales should always continue to increase as the system gets cheaper, but that doesn't happen. The PS2's peak was when it was at $200. Further cuts to $180, $150, and $130 did not make it sell better than it did at $200. There are plenty of other examples, but in any case it's quite clear that the PS4 will likely find its peak before it gets to $200. So, after looking at historical data on how systems sell, the most plausible causal mechanism for the delayed peaks of the PS3 & 360 was the presence of a certain inexpensive non-standard console that was setting the sales charts on fire during the first several years of the last generation. You have still yet to provide any actual data supporting the notion that peaks occuring 4+ years after launch are the new normal. |
It is second yet backed by actual logic.
Why are you lumping Europe in with those two ? Ukraine Belarus Pigs, more half of Europe is broke right now. Double the pop yet similar enough number of hardware sold should tell you enough of the econimic situation of many living there.
No they really arent. To much changes with that much passage of time. You just encompassed the rise of apple and google, so for example maybe you want to use exporer and netscape user numbers in 2000 to predict 2015 search engine user breakdown ? i doubt it. Or maybe top tv manafactuers by sales and see where they are now ? How about China and Japan swiching places.
You just proved my software point. I said "It takes 3/4 years"
Look at PS2s peak year 2002, by the end of it 8 of its top 15 LT best selling games came out by then. Development took less time and top quality software coame out ealrier then it will this gen.
PS360 user were hurting really bad for software early on, i dont think you are bing honest or were there your self to know. The early going was damn brutal.
I never mentioned $180, $150, and $130
199 is the sweet spot, most know that very well.
PS4 will peak sub 300$ and around and after GT and GTA release (3rd + year NOT 2015). you can quote me on that, we can bet put soem cash on it.
