agree you cant get a good guage on software. That said the higher on amazon the better all things considered.
For instance, Farcry 4 had a huge sale so it will be proportionately higher on Amazon than other retailers. Walmart is selling PS3s for 179.99 so PS3 amazon would be lower proportionately there.
I do think it works as a sample to compare an apples to apples scenario. Which is why it works so well to pick the winner each NDP between the XB1 and PS4.
In fact there are only 3 scenarios where Amazon would get it wrong.
1. They are within 2 spots- basically a very close month could go either way type thing.
2. One console is supply constrained (this is actually what happened the last time Amazon was wrong, PS4 was severly contrained and Sony dumped a disportionate amount of PS4s on Amazon causing it beat XB1 on Amazon, while XB1 had more supply in all retailers and was able to win NDP DEC 13)
3. A major sale on amazon or another key retailer. If Amazon decides to sell the XB1 at 350 with 2 free games it would cause a major uptick on amazon but would have a negative effect on other retailers, or if lets say Gamestop decides to sell the PS4 for 350 it would skew the numbers, people would not buy on Amazon unless they did not have a GS near them. Either of these scenarios or something similar would throw the retail landscape out of balance.
End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)
Wii- 72 million 3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases
360- 37 million Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak
PS3- 29 million Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut
