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Mikmster on 15 February 2015
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Shadow1980 said:

The PS3 & 360 were flukes as home consoles go. The Wii was more typical, peaking in its second full year. Here's the peaks by year & region for every console I have annual sales data on:

SNES: 1992, U.S. (1st year)
Genesis: 1993, U.S. (4th year)
Saturn: 1996, U.S. (1st year)
N64: 1997, U.S. (1st year)
PS1: 1998, U.S. (3rd year)
DC: 1999, U.S. (launch year)
PS2: 2002, U.S. (2nd year); 2002, Japan (2nd year)
GC: 2003, U.S. (2nd year); 2002, Japan (1st year)
Xbox: 2004, U.S. (3rd year); 2002, Japan (launch year)
Wii: 2008, U.S. (2nd year); 2007, Japan (1st year); 2008, Europe (2nd year)
360: 2011, U.S. (6th year); 2009, Japan (4th year); 2010, Europe (5th year)
PS3: 2011, U.S. (5th year); 2009, Japan (3rd year); 2011, Europe (4th year)

So, the norm for home consoles is to peak by the third full year. Only the Genesis, PS3, & 360 took longer, and those both have plausible explanations. The Genesis had to deal with Nintendo's de facto monopoly and didn't start to sell well until 1991 when Nintendo relaxed their licensing policies towards third parties. Meanwhile, a good argument can be made that the Wii was stifling growth of the 360 & PS3 as gamers chose the cheaper and more innovative system at first, but after it passed its peak gamers began switching back to systems that offered more traditional gaming experiences.

In the U.S., Nintendo systems have peaked either in year one (SNES & N64) or year two (GC, Wii, and possibly Wii U). The PS1 peaked in year three (it didn't start to really take off until after FFVII came out) and the PS2 peaked in year two.  The Saturn and Dreamcast both peaked very early, but they were never significant sales forces and were languishing behind their competition. The Xbox peaked in year three, and that's mainly because of a price cut and Halo 2. In Japan, hardware tends to peak earlier than it does in America. Meanwhile, Europe may more closely resemble America, with seventh-gen peaks almost perfectly mirroring those in the U.S.

As for handhelds, the DS peaked in year five in the U.S. but peaked in year two in Japan and year three in Europe. The GBA peaked in year two in the U.S. and launch year in Japan. The 3DS meanwhile peaked in all three major regions by 2013.

So, if I had to assign a norm for a system peak, it'd be year two or, less likely, year three. So, either this year or next year will be the peak for the PS4 & XBO, depending on the effects of price cuts and any potential system-sellers. With the Wii U being no Wii, I doubt they'll have delayed peaks like we saw with the PS3 & 360.

Using thsoe old consoles to prove anything is pointless, their sales patterns are irrelevent.

Everythign takes more time now.  PS360 were no flulkes their just modern reality.  

It takes 3/4 years to peak casue softweare takes that long now, it just that simple.  Add the price by then and you have peak year.