| HollyGamer said:
I salute and admiring your projection sales and it's written well. |
Well, first we would need to define what is sales growth, because PS3+360 = 180M, and if PS4+XONE = 190M-200M that's almost flat, barely any growth if at all. Of course here I'm discounting Wii sales, first because I've always discounted them since 2006 when it launched and saw it was clearly a fad, and second because it's easier, I know not all of Wii sales can be discounted, but I've no idea how much to take into account 20M, 30M, more, less, I don't know. I actually have no problem if other people want to account them for, but they're useless except for determining that the console market will surely contract from last gen. You can't use Wii sales to help you estimate PS4 or XONE sales, FFS you can't even use them to estimate WiiU sales or any Nintendo future console for that matter.
I can't give you a margin of error, because this is at most a ballpark estimate, based on pretty superficial observations of past gen consoles trajectories, current trends, market growth, market perception, current economy, current price point, sales in US, EU, RotW, etc.
BHR-3 said:
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See this for example, this makes no sense at all, he just decided it's going to sell barely 100M at most and adjusted the numbers around it. A 14% growth this year, a 6% one after that, there is no chance in hell that happens, not to mention how ridiculously it's to assume the sales will be almost flat going from a $400 price point to a $300 price point (nowhere in that table such expected growth is reflected), anyone with the most basic knowledge about economics knows that's impossible for the PS4. The biggest growth being just 14% makes absolutely no sense.
Also, he should just cut it at year Year 7, because the rest makes even less sense, but of course no one in their right mind believes the PS4 would sell only for 7 years unless something extraordinary happens, but if we're gonna try to predict the extraordinary we may as well not bother making predictions at all, because it's completely useless to try to do such thing.
| HollyGamer said:
in my opinion market segment is changing thanks to internet and social media, and so the targeted market and focus is to difficult to track, that's why many product that release now will have a different sales pattern then last gen consoles. |
Yes, things will change, but things don't change that much that fast. Like I already said even Smartphones took 3-4 years to take the market by storm, even longer depending on when you think it actually started. Maybe the signs are there and I'm missing them, but surely is everybody else, and not it's not Smartphones, at least on their current form are not it, neither are Micro-consoles, Steam machines, etc. If something is going to cause such a big disruption is such a short time it's gonna be fundamentally different from those.
| NobleTeam360 said: Wasn't Xbox One 11 million? so you were off by a million on that. |
Where's the source on that?
| Goodnightmoon said: This is wisful thinking into a whole new level, imo |
PS4 will be around 90M-110M when PS5 releases so that's a given, 140M is pretty likely, much more likely than 100M for example. I think 120M is the bare minimum but it would require short legs for a PlayStation and some kind of collapse in sales.
