Mummelmann said:
thismeintiel said:
Yep, thinking ~115M-120M, myself.
@ OP
Personally, I don't see how people could think the PS4 can't make it to 100M. Ever since the market grew with the PS1, no market leader has failed to make it to 100M+. The PS4 has also made it to 20M+ without a single PS big hitter. No GT. No GOW. No Uncharted. No (possible) TLOU sequel. Not to mention all the great new IPs Sony always launches each gen. We got 2 just around the corner.
And it's done it without a WW price cut. We still have a cut to $349 this year. It could possibly be to $299, but if not, then it will be at $299 next year. Then we have the PS4 Slim, which will come with either the $299 price cut or a $199/$249 one. Speaking of a $199 price, sales should explode at that point, as long as it doesn't happen WAY late in the gen. And considering Sony went with off the shelves parts, as well as a memory type that will still be falling in price, I wouldn't be too surprised if they are able to get it down to $99-$129 a year or so before they take it off of shelves.
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No Nintendo handheld has sold worse than its predecessor either, look at the 3DS numbers.
I'm still not sold on the PS4 selling more than the Wii, this gen will be a lot shorter and price reductions won't have the same impact on a product that released for a 600$ retail price versus one that released at 400$; the great changes might come at around the 250$ mark in most cases but in the PS4's case; that might be a little too late, developing markets are not the same cushion any longer, they are following the trends of mature markets and moving towards more convenience gaming and fringe titles for more casual customers (Buzz, Singstar, Rock Band etc.) practically don't exist on the PS4 (or One) and those that do are not doing so hot.
Look at the PS3 as well; it is moving super slow compared to the PS2 in these markets and in the twilight of its life, at this rate it'll be lucky to sell 25 million after the PS4 released where the PS2 sold in excess of 50 million.
Of course; the PS2 was market leader and sold a lot more but there is no denying that developing markets account for a lot less cumulative sales; it's not like they're buying 360's or Wii's either...
The market has changed and the fast-paced consumer electronics market will be harsher to static devices such as the PS4, One and Wii U than it ever was to the Wii, PS3 and 360.
In the middle of the 7th gen, there was a splintering of the gaming industry and market and several forms of gaming took of in popularity, this is bound to hurt traditional devices in some way and I believe it is (again; look at the 3DS, not to mention the poor Vita).
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GBA?
This gen probably will be a little shorter, but some talk like we're going to be seeing announcements for new consoles in 2016. Not happening. Unless the company is completely desperate to get a jump on next gen. I think the earliest we are going to get announcements is 2018. Earliest I see Sony launching PS5 is 2019. And even then, the PS4 will still be selling well and will continue to sell well when the new consoles hit.
So, I guess the price cuts to the $299 PS2 should have meant even less? Also, the PS3 is still too expensive to have much impact in those developing nations. At this point in its life, I think the PS2 was ~$99. Unfortunately, because of the PS3's architecture, I doubt it will ever be $99, but I'm sure the PS4 will be, or at most $129. We also don't have much info on if Sony is even pushing the PS3 as much as they did the PS2 in those countries. My guess is no.
