thismeintiel said:
Yep, thinking ~115M-120M, myself. @ OP Personally, I don't see how people could think the PS4 can't make it to 100M. Ever since the market grew with the PS1, no market leader has failed to make it to 100M+. The PS4 has also made it to 20M+ without a single PS big hitter. No GT. No GOW. No Uncharted. No (possible) TLOU sequel. Not to mention all the great new IPs Sony always launches each gen. We got 2 just around the corner. And it's done it without a WW price cut. We still have a cut to $349 this year. It could possibly be to $299, but if not, then it will be at $299 next year. Then we have the PS4 Slim, which will come with either the $299 price cut or a $199/$249 one. Speaking of a $199 price, sales should explode at that point, as long as it doesn't happen WAY late in the gen. And considering Sony went with off the shelves parts, as well as a memory type that will still be falling in price, I wouldn't be too surprised if they are able to get it down to $99-$129 a year or so before they take it off of shelves. |
The basic reasoning behind it is the assumption of a greatly changed electronic entertainment industry since the start of last gen. This includes:
- Shorter hardware cycles (see smartphones, televisions)
- People willing to pay more(hence more early adopters -> frontloaded gen)
- Move away from dedicated devices(move to converged devices)
- Japan not giving a fuck
- casual's complete abandonment thanks to mobile
Stuff like that and some wishful thinking. Of course these are just assumptions based on observations outside the console industry and could be completely wrong.
If you go by these assumptions, the PS4 having a great first year means absolutely nothing and rather seems to confirm frontloaded behavior. So yeah, it's actually really easy to belive PS4 will not reach 100m with the right mindset^^
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