| Sullla said: Pokemon Diamond/Pearl will be the top-selling game of 2007, hands down. I didn't mention them because shams' poll specifically mentioned console games only. As far as comparing to the aforementioned Grand Theft Auto and Halo games... don't be so sure. Last year, the sales for Madden came to 6 million copies across all platforms (3.57 million for PS2, 1.67 million for 360, and about 350k for both Wii and PS3). Given that a lot of people have purchased new consoles, or will be purchasing new consoles this year, the sales could go up for this holiday season. (PS2 sales will be down, but the new systems should compensate.) Even if they remain the same, 6 million is an absolutely gigantic number for a single year. Don't underestimate how big it is. Yes, the last two Grand Theft Auto games both came close to 15 million in sales, and GTA4 will be a runaway hit this holiday season. But remember the install base for the PS2 was gigantic; people who wanted a copy of Vice City or San Andreas could go out and get a PS2 for $150 dollars to play the game. That's hardly the case right now, as the game is only coming out on the much more expensive "HD" consoles, plus the install base for 360 + PS3 is vastly lower. (Ironically, GTA4 would move many more copies if a version were being released for PS2!) Sales will still be very, very good - but not 15 million good. Halo 2 did 8 million sales, but that was over quite a few years, not a single holiday season. And again, the XBox was much cheaper (and had a larger install base) when it was released, compared to the position the 360 currently holds. Halo 3 will again move a ton of copies, but come nowhere close to 8 million. (Maybe over the system's lifespan, but certainly not this holiday season.) Since it's only being released on a single system, I doubt Halo 3 will sell as many copies as Madden this year, when you combine all four of its platforms together. Could obviously be wrong, but I don't see it happening. (I'm not saying Halo will be UNsuccessful, just that it won't reach the same heights.) Anyway, it will be a fun comparison. One reason that GTA/Halo have always sold well is that they successfully reached out past "hardcore" gamers and captured casuals, which drove up their sales (GTA especially). Given the much higher prices of 360/PS3 compared to the last generation, will the same be true for their latest incarnations? We'll see. But don't be surprised if Madden is closer than you think to these games, despite getting ZERO mention from the Internet message boards! :) |
We'll see. Madden has never sold as well has Halo and GTA have. I don't think the install base will hurt, and it's the same proportions as it always is. Just like I've said in previous threads about MGS and FF: established franchises sell really well the first time they are released for a console. FF7 and FFX are the 2 highest selling ever in that series, and the same goes for MGS1 and MGS2. I think FF13, MGS4, GTA IV, and Halo 3 will approach the numbers of the predecesors. The only one that has had bad press so far is Halo 3 for looking the same as Halo 2, so that one might drop a little.
But hey, we'll see. Maybe Nintendo fans will decide to play a real sports game this year instead of mario and actually buy Madden in bigger numbers. That's the only difference in the install base proportions.
That reminds me, when is Nintendo going to license out mario for some US football? Apparently Square made a crappy basketball game, so that's a start.
