Burek on 05 February 2015
| Shadow1980 said: It seems Pachter just likes to repeat the same things over and over even after he's been proven wrong before. He gave a similar "consoles are doomed" spiel back in 2009, saying, and I quote, "I think we've seen the last generation of consoles. ... [Third party publishers] are not going to support a PS4 or Xbox 720. The content is not going to change in any meaningful ways because the publishers can't afford it." Well, it seems like reality is once again going the complete opposite direction of a Pachter prediction. The PS4 alone proves that there is still massive amounts of demand for new consoles and for the "AAA" experience. And I also think disc-based systems are here to stay. Because of the massive size of newer games (hello, looming bandwidth cap), sub-standard internet infrastructure (in the U.S., at least), lack of demand (console gamers still prefer physical over digital by an obscenely wide margin), and other potential obstacles, a digital-only system or some streaming set-top device like what Pachter imagines will probably be a market failure. Digital-only might work with PCs (and even it is still not 100% all-digital yet), but consoles are a different beast altogether. While I do think consoles are here to stay for the long run, the Big Three may end up becoming the Big Two before too long. At this point it seems like Xbox is kind of a third wheel, existing to siphon market share away from Sony in the U.S. and UK (the only markets Xbox is relevant in anymore). Even with a $50 price advantage, it appears that the XBO cannot outsell the PS4 in the U.S. outside of the holidays. If this keeps up, I feel that MS's investors will keep putting pressure on them to abandon game hardware after this generation. Unlike Sony and especially Nintendo, MS doesn't even really need Xbox anymore, and it'd probably be more profitable for them to go third-party, making games for PC and the other consoles. With no console to support, they wouldn't be in a position to be spending money on acquiring third-party games as exclusives and would have to develop more of their own IPs. While they've become heavily reliant on Halo, Gear, Forza, and Fable, they do have a lot of existing IPs at their disposal, especially the massive selection of franchises they obtained when they bought out Rare. As for the loss of competition between hardware makers should Xbox go away, Nintendo and Sony alone could still be sufficient by themselves. Nintendo's de facto monopoly on gaming in the 80s didn't turn out too bad, after all, and the 16-bit era was dominated by just two systems yet was perhaps the most brutally competitive generation ever (seriously, if you lived through the 16-bit wars you'll understand; it made current console wars seem like a light skirmish in comparison). Even in the fifth generation it was effectively a two-console race, with the Saturn being reduced to a market share less than what the TurbroGrafx-16 enjoyed in the 16-bit era. We've kind of gotten used to things being a three-horse race over the course of the past 13+ years, but even with just two companies I doubt things will just go downhill from reduced competition. For example, if Sony gets it in their head that they can do what MS tried to do with the Xbox One, well, I think they'll get the same reaction from gamers, who will then just go over to Nintendo. Nintendo themselves dropped the ball back in the fifth generation by deciding to stick with cartridges when it was obvious that discs were the better overall choice at that point (significantly lower prices and greater data capacity), and Sony was there to pick up the ball and run with it, the disc-based PS1 snagging up the lion's share of third-party support and the system becoming the new dominant brand in console hardware. |
This is exactly what I think and feel.
X360 was a major success for MS, as they realized a 200%+ growth over the generation. The only reason XOne even exists was because Mattrick and co. were able to convince Ballmer that it will continue on a growth trajectory, expecting to push over PS even more.
But now that their console business not only stopped growing, but is facing an inevitable decline (as even 70 million sold will still be a failure), there is simply no more reason to invest in a declining market segment. XOne will still be sold, but I expect MS's support for it to stop as soon as 2017, with third party keeping it afloat until discontinuation and withdrawal from hardware scene.
