The systems that failed to grow substantially, or at all, YoY between year 1 and 2 all got significant price cuts in year 1. I can see PS4 selling at roughly the same level as 2014 through 2015 until there is a price cut. Bring in a $50 price cut, or even a $100 price cut and PS4 will end the year substantially higher than 2014. If a price cut is in effect from mid-October on then adding Uncharted 4 to the mix could potentially cause holiday 2015 to sell double PS4's holiday 2014.
If Sony decides to be tight-fisted and does not officially cut the price this year, then yes 2015 could be a flat or even marginally down year. But that only means 2016 will be a massive year because Sony would cut the price of PS4 by $100 (for sure) some time in the first half (probably) of 2016.
I expect Xb one sales to be up through the first 10 months of the year, because price of entry is $150 cheaper from Jan to May, and from June to Oct it's $50 cheaper. I also expect MS to do another "holiday" price cut of $50 (globally this time) which will magically turn into a permanent price cut in Jan 2016. I expect Xb one to stay at $299 in the USA for all of 2016. I can't see them dropping to $249 (temporarily or permanently) until 2017.
“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell
"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."
Jimi Hendrix
