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No, both will be up this year theres no question. Just look at the software we're about to recieve and the baseline's we're at. Comparably last year software was very weak, the systems sold off hype for the first 6 months. Jan might be down a bit for PS4 but thats expected.

Vita peaking in launch year coincided directly with the amount of big games it received. Uncharted, Gravity Rush, Little Big Planet, Persona 4, Assassins Creed Unity, COD...

2016 will likely be the peak year for both systems assuming they get a price cut and the software line up is at least on par with 2015. In comparison to previous generations that would still equate to a slight more front loaded peak.