DM235 said:
http://press.ihs.com/press-release/design-supply-chain/microsoft-xbox-one-hardware-cost-comes-below-retail-price-ihs-tear
XBox One costs at launch were estimated to be about $396 ($471 less $75 for Kinect). They are probably a little less now, as the costs of components typically go down each year.
AC:U and AC:BF would cost Microsoft a lot less than retail, as they don't have to pay themselves royalties, retailer margins, or even packaging, since the titles were just digital codes. I think a high estimate would be $50 for both, although they most likely agreed to a lower price.
Retailers would do bundles are their own expense, so that would not affect Microsoft.
Given the estimates above, they were selling a $444 console for $330 (with some small retailer margin), so they were incurring a loss of about $100 (again, I think this would be a high estimate, as I think their costs would have gone down from launch).
I personally think that if people bought a game, extra controller and XBox Live, they would probably break even.
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I didn't even think about this (bolded) point. Nice catch.