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Aerys said:
So xbox overtracked by something like 500k

It really depends on how much MS overshipped and what AMD meant as "almost" 30M. That said, 10.5M is not out of question though I think sold through figures are more along the lines of 10.7M.

EDIT: The issue the X1 has now is can it sell well outside of holiday season? The PS4 sold consistently throughout last year while the X1 depends on the holidays. The other problem the X1 faces is its anemic library for the first half of the year (and I guess for the summer, too).