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Well, I don't think either has a particularly high probability of happening this generation. Sony loves to tout its "free online" and MS is plenty happy to be raking in around a quarter billion dollars annually from Gold Members. (10 million Live members, estimated 50% with Gold Membership at 50 dollars a year.)

With that said, I think that if the 360 had not had a year head start the PSN would also have required a subscription because Sony would not have felt as pressing of a need to establish that comparative advantage.