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@ stranne

I can understand your point of view on Killzone 2, but being an ex Benelux multiformat journalist, I know for a fact that Guerrilla spent the last four years paying top $$$ to get all kinds of talented people from other devs. Their studio is now really a force to be reckoned with.

And MGS4? U kiddin', right. MGS 3 Sold 3.5 million copy's.
Tekken did 2.5 million, and SOCOM 3 did 1.7 (SOCOM 1 did 3.3 million, by the way)

And heavy Rain, that's just my gut feeling. Fahrenheit (or Indigo Prophecy, as it is called in the US) was great, and the lead man at that studio is a real visionary.
But you're right, that's no guarantee.