Saying PS3 and 360 are equivilant in Japan is a stretch, PS3 has sold three times as much in half the time. The gap will only grow, slimmer PS3, more games and lower price will ensure the gap grows faster.
So PS3 in Japan and Europe, 360 in the US.
The likelihood that PS360 selling better in the future is higher than the likelihood of Wii selling better. In other words, at what higher rate can the Wii sell when it's already selling out, while the PS3 and 360 have room to sell at a better rate in the future with game releases and price cuts.
Also you aren't factoring in PCs, PS360 games also get PC releases usually, so the real HD userbase is PC+360+PS3 which means the HD consoles will get the bulk of big 3rd party releases (especially from western companies).
Also SD Vs. HD will only matter this gen, next gen Nintendo console will surely be HD.
Thanks to Blacksaber for the sig!
