| gigantor21 said: It literally makes no sense to make this argument right now. At all. We're too early into the generation to know that for sure. |
Of course we don't know for sure but we can make educated guesses. PS3 had such a late peak because of its initial high price tag that took a few years to come down. 360 peaked so late because Kinect ended up being a big casual hit that boosted sales later in its life.
PS4 launched at a reasonable price this time and while Xbox One launched high, it has fixed that problem and is now the same price as PS4. Both are likely to reach sub-$300 either this year or next year. Also unless VR headsets become huge casual hits sometime in the second half of the gen, then PS4/XB1 peak years are very likely to be 2015/2016.
Also u can look at PS3/360 sales at the end of their first year, each sold about 7-8 million, less than 10% of lifetime sales for each. At the end of the first year PS4 is at 18.5m and XB1 at 11m, lifetime sales would have to be 185m+ and 110m+ in order to not currently be more front loaded than PS3/360.
When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.
