| Gehirnkrampf said: well, more hardware iterations mean people will have to buy more consoles over time. consoles get their strong advantage weakened (you don't have to upgrade for a time). shorter console lifecycles would also lead to less time and interest to optimize coding techniques (because the next system is around the corner). but yeah, since the new consoles are just standartized x86 pcs there is not TOO much to expect in the future. so i think because of that this generation is bound to be shorter than last gen. which means we will improve on the hardware side of things earlier, but not so much on the software side. more expensive for the gamers, cheaper for the software companies, and, of course more money for the console manufacturers. |
I think you have the console business figured all wrong.
- (since the new consoles are just standartized x86 pcs) just means familiar hardware so not a lot of time will be spent familiarizing with hardware. which means,
- better and more games come out sooner. which means
- more game sales
- ( which means we will improve on the hardware side of things earlier)(next system is around the corner)( of course more money for the console manufacturers.) again wrong. You do realize that these console manufacturers make money primarily from software not hardware.
- no one, not the consumer, hardware manufacturer and definitely not the publishers wants a new console to come out every 4/5 years. the longer they can keep primarily supporting consoles with a large install base the better for them. and,
- if there is one thing that is not going to get improved anytime soon its the hardware. Current gen consoles are on a 28nm fan process think of it this way. PS360 launched on a 90nm fab process. A 28nm fab process in comparison is around 4 times smaller, hence why these consoles can be as much as 5-6 times more powerful. the only way possible you can have next gen console hardware that is at least 4-5 times more powerful than a PS4/XB1 in a console form factor is if fab processes improve by another x4 minimum order of magnitude. so we are talking 7-10nm fabrication. If you know anything about chip fabrication, you will know how almost impossible that is. To help put things in perpective Intel just started mass producing 14nm chips. TSMC (the guys that make the PS4/XB1 apu) are at least 2yrs away from hitting 14nm. Intels road maps suggests a 7nm processor in 2018 at best. That puts cheaper smaller less advanced chip foundries at least 1-2yrs behind them.
