@ JL - I always enjoyed reading your passionate arguments and predictions back in the days when I lurked, and I am enjoying reading this one too - perhaps it's because of the sheer effort and volume of stuff that you put in to support it - I find it strangely uplifting in a way.
I'm not as well versed in the videogaming industry as some people here, but I'd like to offer my small input to the debate.
FICTION: Becoming everyone’s Second System is a nice consolation prize when you’re unable to become the First System.
FACT: Becoming everyone’s Second System automatically makes you the First System.
Agreed. If everyone who owns a gaming PC, X1 or PS4 then goes out and buys a Wii U, then there will be as many Wii U's out there as PC, X1 and PS4 combined, plus those who have the Wii U as their sole console. The Wii U would dominate. Maths proves that. But while Wii U's exclusivity is a very strong reason for getting one as a second console, sadly the reasons for not getting a Wii U as a second console still far outweigh it. (e.g., can't afford another console, Mario & Link don't appeal to all gamers, confused marketing, lack of advertising etc.) It's a hypothetical situation which unfortunately is unlikely to ever make it to reality.
FICTION: It was smart for Microsoft to unbundle Kinect from XBox One to improve sales.
Nintendo should do the same with Wii U & its Gamepad.
FACT: It was stupid for Microsoft to unbundle Kinect from XBox One to improve sales.
Nintendo should never & WILL NEVER do the same with Wii U & its Gamepad.
None of this is either fiction or fact. It is opinion.
FACT - By unbundling Kinect, Microsoft offer choice to consumers and a slightly more affordable price.
FACT - X1 has overtaken Wii U in sales.
Are these facts directly linked? Let's assume, for argument's sake, that they are. So in terms of sales, it would have been a smart move. But in terms of compatability with certain games, possibly not. That's why whether it's a smart move or not is down to opinion. If those two facts aren't directly linked, then even moreso.
The only thing on this topic we can be fairly certain on is that Nintendo is very unlikely to drop the Gamepad. But then Nintendo are very good at making surprise moves we don't expect.
FICTION: Nintendo should go back to making traditional controllers.
FACT: The “traditional controller” is Nintendo’s tradition.
Without doing hours of research to validate your argument, I'll buy this for now. :)
FICTION: The Japanese market is irrelevant to the videogame industry.
FACT: Japan is the CAPITAL of the videogame industry.
Your potted history supporting this argument would make a great movie, but it's not well backed up. For example, did Microsoft really think they were buying DK when they bought Rare? Was buying Rare really a consolation move after failing to buy out Nintendo? If you can provide some links supporting that and some of the other things you've said on the subject of Japan and the videogame industry, I'd be interested to read it. Not because I'm challenging you, but because I want to be informed. Until then, I'm afraid I'm just going to be annoyingly skeptical. :)
FICTION: PlayStation 4 will win the console wars.
FACT: The strongest console NEVER wins.
So this is what has ruffled all the feathers.
'Playstation 4 will win the console wars' is not fiction. It's not fact, either. However, it is a very strong probability based on the way things are going so far, unless unlikely or unknown events happen, just as it was with the Wii at around this point in the last generation.
'The strongest console NEVER wins' is not a fact, because the future cannot be accurately predicted. Ever seen those disclaimers on financial investment prospectuses that say 'past performance is not indicative of future returns'?
The strongest console may never have won yet, (again, I've not done the research to check that) but there's a first time for everything, and there's a very strong probability that it will happen this generation.
