How MS failed at GTA IV.. again...

[Ail]

Dodece said:
I think for a site that is all about running the numbers many of us have brought emotion to this thread and discarded our trusted calculators. First these two content packs will be profitable for Microsoft. they need only sell 1.66 million units for each pack to break even were they to charge fifteen dollars. All they need to sell this to is ten percent of their install base. Which is entirely possible and plausible. Especially since the current install base will be two million stronger by the time the first pack arrives.

Beyond that Microsoft has nothing to exploit with details. Two major problems have developed on the console over the last few months. The first problem is production difficulties. Ideally Microsoft should have three to four million consoles available to exploit the demand and have remainder units to replenish shelves. Realistically they have a million units available for launch month. Sales will increase based upon competitive pricing alone. Microsoft really takes a hit for being overly successful during the holidays, and for having manufacturing woes. Frankly it was a major catastrophe. Especially considering they have placed so much effort and faith in this title.

The second problem is titles slipping towards the back end of the calendar. Which creates a greater advertising opportunity in the last four months of the year then they would otherwise enjoy now. They cannot even exploit a greater trend from Grand Theft Auto. There next major title being Ninja Gaiden, but beyond that it is shaping up to be a dull summer. Too many titles have picked up stakes and slipped into the fall. They may be better off saving advertising revenue.

One might suspect that they might even gather up a month with four major game releases. Perhaps September could see a Fable 2, Too Human, Alan Wake, and Left 4 Dead. Which would be more effective advertising the hell out of a game for multiple platforms which you cannot fully exploit, or splitting those kind of resources on four games in the space of a month.

I expect Microsoft to advertise Grand Theft Auto, but when it comes to their extra content packages. I would fully expect them to advertise them when the packages hit later this year along with what should be a powerful short term lineup. Not only would it be more exploitable when it came to holiday shoppers, but it could help to generate a stronger overall impression.

Looking into my crystal ball I see the 360 being sold out in a month. Everyone will talk about it like its a revelation, but the irony is that Microsoft will do this without the massive advertising campaign many posters think they need. The reality most will realize is that Microsoft was in no position to exploit this title regardless. To those hanging on the fence my best advice is to buy now and not find yourself pissed off that you cannot get one.

I can say it Microsoft really screwed up on this one. They will not lose this war on the advertising front. They will lose it on the factory floor. A painful lesson to not underestimate yourself.

To the best of my knowledge they can only sell the DLC pack to those people that bought GTAIV and that won't be 100% of their user base.

Lets say 4 million people buy GTA 4 on the 360, they would need to sell the DLC to almost half of them, that seem like a lot to me....