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Another thing to consider is that when you're trying to make predictions about the future based on very limited information it is quite difficult to be correct. Early on the Dreamcast sold quite well and there was reason to think that it could have built a healthy following, by the time the PS2 launched it was clear the Dreamcast wouldn't save Sega. At the same time you could have expected Nintendo to be more agressive with the Gamecube's line-up than they were which would have dramatically improved their userbase; had Nintendo released Mario, Zelda, Super Smash Bros, Mario Kart and Metroid Prime in the first 12 months of the Gamecube's life it would have sold far better.