Will Sony and MS have the courage to compete with Nintendo in 2016?

[Normchacho]

padib said:

Normchacho said:

Okay, you seem to keep talking about the Nintendo side of this. But why should MS or Sony be worried at all? Microsoft, for instance, already has just one software library. Better still, they don't have to spend the extra money or resources developing or manufacturing a second piece of hardware to sell it on.

So, I'd like to ask you what scenario you see playing out that leads to Nintendo taking over the home console market.

Thanks. Microsoft, has one console to support that is a very good point. I actually was thinking about that today. Despite strongly supporting two distinct libraries on two distinct platforms, Nintendo has been able to compete in terms of exclusives on home consoles. For example, if we were to compare exclusives for the X1 and exclusives for the U, we would see that Nintendo, despite being torn between two consoles, was still able to compete on that level. However as competitive as they have been, their output can't compete against the combination of 3rd party multi-plats and exclusives on the X1.

The question that comes next is, what happens when Nintendo is able to combine the libraries of the 3DS and the U? We know that Nintendo has seen great success on handhelds since they entered the market. If Nintendo creates a new platform that contains the software of both home and portable lines in the old sense of the terms, it would only follow that the combined platform would have that much more compelling a software library than the best of the two.

For that reason, I expect the next hardware release to propel Nintendo into greater sales due to the combined library. That hardware would usher Nintendo in a cross-platform configuration where their library is very difficult to compete with in terms of 1st party content (which often is the crowned jewel of a console) even when paired with 3rd party multiplats. I was trying to imagine that future, seeing Nintendo with a really strong library which includes all of the home console heavy hitters, all of the portable heavy-hitters, and the 3rd party exclusives of the two like Monster Hunter and Yokai Watch, and making it very difficult for the other two hardware manufacturers to compete in terms of exclusives and especially heavy-hitting ones. Due to the 3DS' success, I expected that new platform to be even more popular due to having at least the same games and then more.

When the multi-device configuration would enter the market, and Nintendo being able to brand all configurations equally and with the same library, in my mind I saw Sony and MS surprised by the success of the new configuration, and later scrambling to emulate it within the first generation of it coming to market (which would be gen 9). Knowing that Nintendo pushed Sony out of the handheld market, I was foreseeing that something similar could happen as a whole once Nintendo consolidated its software library, irrespective of home or portable implementations of the hardware.

That of course is just how I see it, and my question in OP. As long as we both start on the same grounds (confirmed announcements by Iwata last January), I'm okay hearing your view on it even if it's contrary.

While I agree that a unified Nintendo software lineup with certainly be benificial, I don't know if a bigger chunk of the home console pie is going to be one of those benifits.

For one, Nintendo is...different. Them being different is both their greatest strength, and their greatest weakness. Nintendo has a very loyal fanbase and it's because of how unique they are. You simply can't get games like the Nintendo crop on a Playstation or Xbox. Another reason it's such a good thing is that it makes it easy to justify as a second console. If you have a PS4 or and Xbox One,  how do you justify spending the extra money to buy the other? They have something like 85-90% the same games even your only counting retail games. But getting a Nintendo console? You'll have very few crossover games.

The downside, anybody who isn't a Nintendo fan? Anyone who likes darker, more mature games doesn't even give them the time of day. Shooter fans, fans of sports games. Then you have multiplat games, they do very little to help or hurt Sony or Microsoft against one another...but it cripples Nintendo.

Then you have Nintendos own handheld success. What makes the people who have a 3DS but have avoided the WiiU buy the next Nintendo home console? take a hypothetical buyer, he wants a home console, and a handheld. He buys the Nintendo handheld because lets face it, what else is he going to buy? So what does he buy for the home console? Certainly not the Nintendo one, why buy a console that you already have access to all of the games to? He buys an Xbox or a Playstation. 

There are smaller issues aswell. Power, being one of them. In order to have a unified library power will have to be at least in the same ballparke between the handheld and the home consoles. This will no doubt hinder the home console to at least some degree. If Nintendo launches with a console that isn't even as powerful as the Xbox One the simple notion will create negative word of mouth that could drown the console. It'll be seen as dated and not a serious gaming machine by the hardcore gamers, and though that demographic is fairly small. They are largely the voice of the gaming community and have the power to sway the main market.

Don't get me wrong, I don't think Nintendo needs a bigger chunk of the home console market. I think it is better for Nintendo to try and be a gamers second console than it is for them to try and go toe to toe with Playstation for the core gaming market. The changes that have been outlined show that Nintendo is aware of it's position and that they know how to double down and make themselves financially stronger within that position.

I just don't see Nintendo's place in the home console market changing until either they do, or the market does. and I just don't see either happening in the near future.