Beginning of gen predictions vs. predictions now

[freedquaker]

DarkRPGamer007 said:

The end of the year is almost here, and with that wraps up the first year of full next gen. Let's just start out by saying, my predictions have completely changed from the beginning of this gen until this point. I honestly didn't see any of this coming from any console or handheld (other than Vita failing and PS4 succeeding) but please tell me your predicitons!

Pre-launch predictions

3DS- 130m

PSV- 50m

Wii U- 80m

PS4- 80m

XB1- 65m

 

Current predictions

3DS- 85m

PSV- 12m

Wii U- 27m

PS4- 92m

XB1- 46-48m

 

Also, PS4 may have seemed low at first, but look at my predictions from the end of 2011 for the last gen consoles

Wii- 110m

XB360- 80m

PS3- 75m

 

So you probably see why the PS4 was a bit lower. Also, I didn't expect Wii U to have this terrible blow, I thought it would sell much, much more. XB1 honestly was on the fence, but I thought it would sell less.

 

Yeah XBOX One's predictions are a bit rough as of now but as you see, they've chagned. So how about your guys predictions? Have they been any different?

 

My original prediction never changed save for slight adjustments up and down, due to price cuts etc. Your predictions for XB1 and PS4 are now closing in mine. With more time, you'll get there.

by the end of 2014,

PS4 : 13.7 - 17 million

XB1 : 6.3 - 9.8 million

original:http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=182332&page=1

adjusted  : http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=187926&page=1

the only deviation is XB1 selling slightly more than estimated due to agressive price cuts and free games (which is not accounted for in the estimation). Otherwise the estimates are nearly perfect.

by the end of 2020

XB1 sales estimate : 47.5 to 73.3 million
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=178350&page=1

PS4 sales estimate : 132.3 to 168.9 million
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=178353&page=1

These estimates will be updated in January after the dust in 2014 settles, depending on the sales rates, and relative market share. It's likely that the (confidence) intervals will get smaller and expected XB1 sales will improve to something like (55-75 million).