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Intrinsic on 26 December 2014
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vkaraujo said:

Here is my problem with your prediction.

You are aiming for 180M to PS4+X1. PS3+X360 only managed to reach almost 170M until now and they had a big life span. We also have to consider japan that had 10M PS3, something i am not sure PS4 can make, and almost 1.7M X360, which i am 100% sure the XONE won't make.

We also have to consider how powerfull those consoles were compared to PC, and how this will affect this gen. 

What i want to say is that i don't expect big growth over those 170M, if any.

I wil just start by saying that PS2 alone managed over 150M in as many years as the 360 has been on the market. But let me go on and address your issues.

  1. 180M PS4X1, 170M PS360... it doesn't really matter. What you should look at is the fact that unlike last gen when all 3 players did very well, this gen only one of them is going to do really well, the second will do great and the third will be a failure. So that just means that there will be a larger sales bias this gen than last gen, last gen we had a 100/80/80 split. The person that did the 100 last gen is not going to manage 30M this gen. One of the people that did 80 last gen will not push past 60M this gen, all those supposed extra sales have to go somewhere. Also consider that last gen the most expensive console was $600. The fact that the consoles will get cheaper faster this gen pretty much ensures a more rapid adoption rate.

  2. I stll believe that sony will sell up to 10M PS4s in japan this gen, but even if they don't the ROW market which now includes china is growing bigger and bigger with every passing gen. 

  3. How powerful those consoles were compared to PCs is completely irrelevant. Like I couldn't stress it enough just how irrelevant the power argument is if comparing consoles to PCs and using that as some sort of marker for how sales will trend. ESPECIALLY with the current gen of consoles. Look at it this way, how much different are cross platform games bewteen current gen and last gen right now? Then ask yourself this, do you think in another 6-7yrs games running on PCs will look soooooooooooo much better that it would demand new consoles to be able to keep up?

  4. I don't expect a big growth either. Like I have said already. Thats why I pointed out that last gen we had a total of ~260M across 3 consoles. This gen it will be under 200M.  Difference here is just that one player is doing really well, one is doing ok and one is doing extremely poorly.