I agree that ps4 will win usa in 2015,but i don't agree with you with point 4 and 6.
For the point 4 nobody care about non game services in both consoles as for point 6 casuals market is not in any consoles unless you call game like call of duty are casuals games,if you call games like call of duty casuals then those kind of casuals was always on Playstation and Xbox,but real casuals gamers simply didn't bough a new consoles.
PS4 - over 100 millions let's say 120m
Xbox One - 70m
Wii U - 25m
Vita - 15m if it will not get Final Fantasy Kingdoms Heart and Monster Hunter 20m otherwise
3DS - 80m







