2019, maybe even 2018. The consoles already struggle hard to run at 1080x1920 or 60fps or even both (and even struggling with 30fps in some games), while QHD and 4K are already incoming fast. PS360 where on par or even slightly ahead of high-end PCs at their release while this generation, they where already just equal to mid-range computers. In other words, even with their much lower level API they just can't keep up. You can already build a PC with similar specs to a PS4 for around 500$/€ or less, with only the Windows license making it considerably more expensive.
It's even worse for the Xbone which will be equaled by iGP/APU onboard graphic chips by 2016, which means you won't even need to buy a seperate graphics card to build a PC with the same power anymore.
In short, I think the Xbone will get replaced by 2018 and the PS4 in 2019, unless they are willing to live on with 720p or even less with upscaling, unstable 30fps and downgraded graphics compared to their respective PC ports or turning them into streaming consoles.
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