By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close
theprof00 on 19 December 2014
Edit Thread
binary solo said:
theprof00 said:
binary solo said:

You didn't read the Op did you? Or if you did you completely failed to understand its thesis. Not sure what's worse, failing to read or failing to understand.

@OP your logic is interesting, however it fails to account for one thing. There are roughly 100 million young'uns in the USA, roughly 40% want a game console, roughly 25% of those want a xb one and roughly 40% of them are not especially fussed about what console they get. That means roughly 26 million kids and teens who have birthdays evenly spread through the year. That means 200k birthdays per week spread over 5 years is 40K consoles per week as birthday presents, minus 10k for consoles bought for Xmas means 30k consoles. The price skew puts xbone at an ongoing weekly advantage which can mean xbone > PS4 most weeks.

Over 5 years, assuming that every kid gets one. Many kids don't play video games or some buy both. And a lot don't get consoles for birthday but something smaller. I only got consoles for xmas for example. Also, I don't entirely understand your numbers either, what about kids who want a ps4? Main demographic only means the largest portion, not 100%

Yeah, that's why I roughly estimated that 40% of the roughly 100 million "kids" want (and will get) a console during this generation. So the consumer pool of kids who will get consoles is about 40 million. That might be high or it might be low, but if the console market as a whole in the USA is about 80 million then half being of he dependant child variety (at least at the time the console is purchased) feels about right.

I guessed 25% of kids want a Xb one, 40% are flexible and will be happy with whatever, leaving the other 35% as either explicitly wanting WiiU or PS4. If you want an estimate there I'd say 15% Wii U and 10% PS4. But all 3 companies are really marketing to to the 40% who are happy to go with any console. PS4 is at a disadvantage with that 40% right now, because of price. If a parent is not directed by the child to get console A, then when the (non-gamer) parent goes out to buy a console they will mostly buy on price and / or the console bias of the shop assistant they're talking to.

It is probably true that parents will prefer to defer a console purchase until the holidays, because that's when the best deals are available. This is why it's important to release games with kid appeal all year 'round. Firstly it keeps console sales ticking along 52 weeks of the year instesd of 12 weeks, and secondly it shifts sales to a more profitable time where specials and bundles don't squeeze the margins. When you relase, say, Mario Kart in June it means kids with birthdays in the weeks after that will agitate for a Wii U because they want Mario Kart NOW!!!!! And as long as the parents aren't on a strict budgets they will often cave in.

Well, this part I agree with for the most part. The only problem that exists really is how you calculated your numbers for your weekly sales, because we don't actually know the specifics of base sales and demographic proportion, using any sales numbers in predictive text is in error. You can only predict percentages.