Call of Duty Decline Discussion

[binary solo]

A_C_E said:

binary solo said:
Cod4:MW released when 360 and PS3 were 13M and 6M install base respectively, which is slightly less than the combined install bases of PS4/Xb one at AW launch.

MW's 2 platform LTD is ~15.5M. AW's current PS4bone LTD is 6.6M + <20% digital sales(?) ~ 9million. So I don't think there's a lot of merit to the argument that PS4bone install base is too low. I also don't buy the whole generation transition thing, at least not to the extent suggested. The game is cross gen, which means the casuals who don't upgrade to the new gen until years 2-4 are still able to get their CoD fix on old gen units, and there is no reason for them to not buy it, other than franchise fatigue.

IMO CoD has peaked and it will never reach the heights of MW / Blops era. But it will continue to be one of the bigger selling annual releases. If Activision are getting into panic stations because their CoD franchise is selling slightly under 20 million on PS4bone (and how many millions on PC) per year then there is something wrong with their business model.

Thank you. You offered another way of looking at it, comparing the install bases and lining up the releases. And fair enough if you think CoD has reached a fatigued state, considering numbers show this ,your right.

But how can one explain how AW has already outsold Ghosts by a big margin on next gen platforms in only a month? Yes the game is cross gen but we are talking about casual gamers who buy more games in their first two years, hence why CoD sales go up when hardware sales go up. Another point is that 8th gen is growing twice as fast as 7th gen and (surprise, surprise) so is CoD. MW1 sold 15.5 million; MW2 (two years later) then sold 24 million which is a gain of about 55% over MW1. Ghosts sold 5 million on 8th gen; AW (only one year later) has sold 6.6 million on 8th gen so far. I think its safe to say AW will get a few million more sales once december and the rest of 2015 is through. I see AW gaining 70% of sales over ghosts in 8th gen and next years CoD should be even bigger and the year after that I see CoD getting back to around the same number that MW2 generated (maybe not 25-28 million, but still close).

I don't see why Activision would be worried. I read an article with some proffessional journalist talking about how Activision should be worried since CoD isn't selling as well as before and  how Destiny couldn't fill in the gap. This is why I made this thread in the first place because I don't agree with this at all. Activision is raking in money with CoD every year and will continue to do so while being one of, if not the biggest selling game on a yearly basis. What's to worry about when you have the biggest franchise in 8th gen?

Ghosts total sales all platforms = 24.3 million (VGC retail only)

AW total sales all platforms = 11.44M (VGC retail only)

You tell me if AW is going to sell another 13 million over the next year?

Also CoD ghosts equal time on market (4 weeks to date) 4 platform LTD was 11.9M last gen consoles + 1.9M new gen consoles = 13.8 million. So AW retail sales is nearly 2 million behind what Ghosts was in a launch aligned comparison.

It's obvious there has been a large transfer from last gen to this gen. But the total is down.