Another excellent thread Lichty! I'm going to agree with you on this. What you have pointed out just makes sense.
Japan had no PS4 sales the first 2 months of the year. Plus I think the baseline next year will be much better with the line up they have. Some weeks will have pretty decent spikes. China launch in January. You can bet on it being much bigger than the X1 launch and given the time of the year it comes out sales should be decent. It will increase it's weekly baseline by a bit but by how much is yet to be seen.
On top of that PS4 should naturally sell more next year given it's year two.







