I think they are going to skip the $349 price point completely and go straight to $299. Especially considering that at that point MS will no doubt have a $299 console on the market too.
I also think that they won't be putting a 1Tb HDD in the PS4 for a very very long time. It sounds nice and all but they don't have to, they would rather add external HDD support and just call it a day. I also don't think they would want to have tons of different SKUs in circulation, so we will see nothing more than the white and black PS4 SKUs, and rather than see full custom consoles going forward we will just get custom faceplates.
And as for its effect, a $299 PS4 will be a very very big deal. And at that point, I don't think a $250 X1 makes much of a difference, unless MS can somehow manage to come in at $299 with two free games or $250 with one free game.
If this price drop is done in november 2015, then I don't think they would be taking much of a hit if any at all. By that point they could be selling the PS4 and making a profit on the box at $299.
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