Has Wii U Reached Full Market Saturation?

[zorg1000]

RolStoppable said:

zorg1000 said:

I guess maybe it seems like casuals don't want dedicated hardware because Nintendo made some mistakes but I honestly cannot see Wii U/3DS doing a whole lot better if they basically just made Wii 2 & DS 2, would Wii Sports/Wii Fit/Brain Training/Nintendogs have the same impact as they did back in 2005-2009. Wii/DS benefitted alot from being the right products at the right time, they had virtually no competition for this demographic. If smart devices were around back in 2005/2006 then Wii/DS likely would not have seen nearly as much success as they did.

It's not impossible, but it's very very unlikely Nintendo can win back this crowd in massive numbers, it's just hard to compete with free games on devices everybody already owns. Wii wasn't a massive success because people thought those were the hith quality games ever, they were successful because they were simple pick up and play games that were fun in a group setting. Paying  $200+ on hardware and $50-60 software is too much for these people now.

U didn't really explain tho what u think Nintendo should do next-gen, ur being very vague and just saying make hardware that is easy to understand and new ip that can draw in new consumers. How do they do this? What type of games do u believe will bring in this audience? Mini game compilations and fitness games won't do it for the console, that's been played out and is no longer new. Educational games/pet simulators on handhelds? Nope, once again played out and no longer new. Same goes for motion controls and touch screen gaming, they aren't new and every device has them, so what can Nintendo do to make their hardware/software seem new and fresh again to this demographic?

Well, no, those games wouldn't have had the same impact the second time around, but why should we restrict this hypothetical scenario to Nintendo pumping out only sequels instead of continuing to evolve? Not sure how anyone could think that the availability of smart devices in 2005/06 could have stopped the Wii success. As I've repeatedly pointed out, they simply don't work as substitutes, hence they wouldn't be able to challenge Nintendo. Even the DS wouldn't have been threatened much despite smart devices having touchscreen interfaces, because there is the first mover advantage in entertainment. That's why iPhone/iPad continue to persist in popularity despite numerous other companies entering the same market segment; and in this case we are talking about mostly technological competition while when it comes to games, simply offering better technology doesn't give you an automatic edge because video games are content driven. Remember how the PS3 plus Move fared. The difference between Apple and Nintendo in their respective fields is that Apple stuck to their guns while Nintendo voluntarily gave up their advantages, hence the different fortunes of these companies.

Wii was a success because people perceived Nintendo's software as high quality. This is easy to verify by looking at the Wii bestsellers list that is dominated by Nintendo games while third party clones didn't come anywhere close to matching Nintendo's heights. Part of that can be attributed to Nintendo's first mover advantage on the software side, but it's just as important that Nintendo games were of higher quality. It's very arrogant to claim that the "casual crowd" has no quality standards whatsoever. And again, your argument that they don't want dedicated hardware anymore is based on the failures of the Wii U and 3DS.

The type of games that bring in new consumers are ones that are easy to learn, but still offer substance. Dual analog controllers, gritty games, online multiplayer focus; these are the things that Sony and Microsoft do. What's vague about that? It means no dual analog controller, colorful games, offline multiplayer (competitive and co-operative) for Nintendo. The people who look down on the "casual crowd" always equate games for them with minigame compilations and the rest that you mentioned, but somehow the likes of Mario Kart and Super Mario Bros. don't count. Zelda could easily be transformed into a multiplayer spinoff with different classes and a basic level up system. Think of a mix between Four Swords Adventures and Hyrule Warriors: Four players, top-down perspective, no lame puzzles and thus focused on combat where the players help each other out with their different abilities. Doesn't need more than a d-pad and a few buttons to be played, but it would be awesome. That's the kind of stuff that put Nintendo on the map in the first place.

Also, motion controls aren't a dead end. When did sales of Nintendo games go down? It was in 2011 and after. When was the last time Nintendo made such games? The year before (Wii Party), but the more significant one (Wii Sports Resort) was a 2009 release. Sales decreased because supply of new content dried up; that's what happened, not people losing interest. And even if other companies would try to dabble in motion controls, their ability to compete with Nintendo quality is in serious doubt. Furthermore, trends come and go repeatedly in entertainment, so a down period doesn't necessarily mean death for an idea. Even if we assume that the audience has grown tired of motion controls (which we shouldn't, because the real cause for the decline is that Nintendo stopped making such games), by late 2016 it will have been already more than half a decade since the previous boom. After a hiatus things can easily feel fresh again, especially if previous shortcomings are cleaned up.

Im not saying smart devices would have stopped Wii/DS success but they would have affected it if the App Sotre/Google Play were prevalent around the time Wii/DS released. Also, I never said casual gamers have no standards for quality, I'm saying their opinion on what makes a quality game is something that is simple and offers fun gameplay for short periods of time. Having free/$1 games that are simple, fun and addicting has devalued gaming in a way. Why spend $60 on a game when I can get one for 1/60 the price and is just as fun?

Actually sales of Wii started to go down in 2009, this year had Wii Sport Resort, Wii Motion Plus, Wii Fit Plus, New Super Mario Bros Wii, Just Dance, $50 price cut yet sales went down 12% YoY. 2010 had Wii Party, Super Mario Galaxy 2, Donkey Kong Country Returns, Kirby Epic Yarn, Just Dance 2, Zumba Fitness and sales went down 18%. 2011 had Wii Play Motion, Kirby Return to Dreamland, Zelda: Skyward Sword, Skylanders, Just Dance 3, another $50 price cut and sales went down 33%. So the decline did in fact start well before Nintendo stopped supporting with high quality software.

Ur just saying having a simple to use controller and colorful, local multiplayer games will do the trick but there is no way in hell that is all it takes to have another Wii level success. By that logic, if Wii U launched at $250, used Motion Plus instead of the Gamepad and had games like Nintendo Land, Splatoon, Mario Maker in the launch window then Wii U would be selling like hotcakes. I agree it would be doing better in that scenario but to believe it would be on its way to Wii level success is just plain naive.