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The holidays in the US will always be tighter due to the XBOX target audience being younger than the PS4s. The XBOX has always had a chokehold over the 10-18 year old male fanbase. Many of them are to young to have jobs so they have to wait for CMAS to upgrade. (note, I am not saying the XB1 is "childish" it is just the audience most attracted to MS's branding and marketing strategies, and to be fair its a smart audience to focus on in the US)

Even back in gen 6 when the PS2 decimated the XBOX, the XBOX was still strong with the audience I mentioned. Back then I was in that age group and all my friends had an XBOX(I guess they thought it was cool to own a box, with a giant X on it) all the while the PS2 went on to what a 75-80% marketshare. Even now this holds true, most of the people my age I know (late 20s) have a PS4, but many of my younger cousins (and their friends) who are in the age group want an XBOX.


All that considered I cant see how you can take one good month for the XBOX compared the pattern that has emmerged ovet the past year. I want to say out of 12 NDP MS has won 2. Last month and DEC 2013, which again adds validitity to my bigger holiday boost hythothesis stated above.

Even worse, taking one good month (and baseing your entire prediction on it) and that month being a pricedrop month is pretty irresponsible. On top of that the biggest (or 2nd biggest if you think TF was bigger) exclusive of the year came out for the XB1 in HALO:MCC. And to top the cake the XBOX added to the pricedrop bundles with AAA games at no extra cost.

XB1 might win Decemeber, but some of the advantages it had in Novemeber will have burnt off demand, the gap will be tighter, and much tighter % wise.

I would urge to revisit your theory the 2nd Thursday in February. If the XB1 wins Nov, Dec and then even Jan it will be time to talk about how Sony can regain momentum.



End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)

Wii- 72 million   3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases

360- 37 million   Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak

PS3- 29 million  Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut