Captain_Tom said:
Landguy said:
Captain_Tom said:
You see I expect this gen to be quite a bit shorter than the last. 5-6 years at most.
-The PS4 is selling as fast if not faster than the Wii as of now, and should have longer legs. However I think the PS5 will come out within 4-5 years so I don't really expect it to get much past 100m.
-The X1 is selling as well as the 360 right now (A little better), or MUCH lower if you remove the frontloaded sales of 2013. I also expect the X1's sales to drop off faster than the PS4's because they will run out of room for price drops WAY sooner, and frankly I think this is the best holiday they will have in terms of their exclusives being more competitive than Sony's. So that is why I see it topping out at 50m at most.
-The Wii U however has and still is on a straight trajectory to hit 15-25m. I mean this will probably be their best year, with next year maybe coming close if they can bring the entry price down to $150 with a few great games like Paper Mario. This thing will also probably be succeeded by the Nintendo HD or whatever within 3 years.
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I agree for the most part.
The one thing that I see for both the PS5 and XB2 is backwords compatibility. I think that both companies will design their next systems to maximise whatever the tech trendy thing to add is, but it will all be built off of the current architecture for the most part. Cost to develop the next gen will be much lower and there will be less chance to piss off their user base.
Like you said, this gen will be much shorter. Tech trends are changing fast nowadays (this gen should have had 4k support). If they don't keep up, they will be obsolete really fast.
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Oh yeah backwords compatibility will be much easier to do next time around. I fully agree...Well except for the 4K part. The fact is that these consoles do support 4K at 30 FPS, and I wouldn't be surprised if a few of the weaker games on PSN offered a 4K option near the end of the generation.
However the best (Single) card at playing 4K right now is the 290X, and it still costs $400. That simply wasn't an option, and 4K adoption won't be even near where 1080p was last gen for another 5 years. By then GPU's will run it no problem.
Don't forget that people were running 3x1080p eyefinity and 1600p displays around when the PS3 launched...
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I disagree on the 4k part though. 1080p TVs were $2,500 and up for a 40 inch model when the PS3/360 came out.
I can get a 55 inch Samsung 4k tv today for $1,200(even less, $900 on Black Friday). 4k tv's are dropping in price much faster than true HD(1080p) ever did. The truth is, the cost for manufacturers isn't that much higher to go to 4k. As a result, it isn't that hard for them to put out lower cost tv's if they WANT to. Usually electronics companies try to milk new tech for high margins for a long time. With 4k, they seem to be abandoning that theory quickly to maintain market relevence.
So, I think that 4k market penetration in the US/Western Europe /Far eastern Asia areas will increase dramatically in the next 3 years.
Just an added thought, small games doing 30fps in 4k will not impress many people. That's what will make the next gen look actually impressive. True 4k at 60fps.
