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Yep! People think developers care about userbase, truth is they care about sales. Indie devs are not gonna drop the Vita anytime soon- it gives them money. Japanese devs are not gonna drop the Vita anytime soon, infact support is increasing and cross platform titles on PSV are now toe to toe with their PS3 counterparts.

The question is how low does hardware sales need to become for sony to throw in the towel? Will the userbase remain active in 3 years?

I think if sony continues to engage Vita fans, it could last longer then the 3DS support wise in japan.