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XBox should win easily.

On the first day of the NPD month, MS dropped the price by $50, then gave you two games for free (AC Bundle), had Halo release a week later, exclusive marketing/bundle for CoD, dropped the price another $20 for Black Friday and had some retailers give you $50 gift cards on top of that. (Target)

PS did nothing until Black Friday, and gave you two different bundles with no price drop.

North America is the only hope for the XBox One to sell close to PS4, and they are throwing everything at November to win NPD and turn the tide in the US.

If MS does not win November, they are in deep trouble.