Well, it seems with MS lowering the price of the XBO by $50 for all SKUs, plus throwing in a few free games, many have been predicting that MS would definitely win Nov. However, I'm not so sure.
For most of the year, we have been using Amazon's Bestsellers list to predict who would win each month. And for every month, it has been accurate. While the monthly charts may greatly change after Black Friday weekend is completely over, I still expect the XBO to be on top, even if only by a spot or two. However, even when we looked at Amazon, the other retailers were showing similar results. This month is different.
It is true the XBO has been ahead almost all month on Amazon and Best Buy, Wal-mart and Gamestop were showing the opposite, with the PS4 remaining ahead all month. Personally, I think it is safe to assume that Wal-mart and Gamestop sell a good deal more than Best Buy and Amazon, especially Wal-mart's online store. We also have something that usually disrupts trends in November, Black Friday.
Ever since the PS4 GTAV was launched, it has jumped to the top of all retailers Bestsellers lists, and refuses to drop. Now, if it was just one SKU, that wouldn't be very telling. But, if we look at all the other SKUs performance, it is very telling.
Amazon - The PS4 currently has spots #1, #32, #47, and #87 in hourly bestsellers. The XBO only has #3 on the entire Top 100. I think that, SKUs combined, the PS4 must be outselling the XBO ~2:1, or close to it, and this has been going on for hours.
Walmart - If we only look at Bestsellers for only current gen consoles (home and handheld), PS4 holds spots #2, #8, #15, and #16 in the Top 40. The XBO holds #7, #9, #33, and #36. I'd estimate that to being outsold ~1.5:1, maybe more. And again, this has been going on for hours. Actually, in Wal-mart's case, this has been going on for weeks.
Gamestop - The PS4 is #1, #4, #34, and #49 in the Top 50. The XBO is #14, and #26. Like Amazon, this must be another ~2:1 ratio, which also has been going on for hours. And weeks, though, probably not at such a large ratio.
Best Buy - The PS4 is #1 in the Top 50, while XBO is #2 and #5. This seems to a case of them selling equal or the XBO having a slight lead, depending on how far #1 is from #2.
November is definitely a tricky month to forcast, and we still need to see how physical retail does, but I'm still predicting the PS4 can take it. If Sony can still take it, without really countering the XBO's price cut, that would be a huge win. Especially with how much MS's gaming profit must be taking a hit to win Nov and Dec. Either way, I think whoever wins, it won't be by too much.
