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bouzane on 27 November 2014
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bowserthedog said:
bouzane said:
bowserthedog said:
Kerotan said:
bowserthedog said:

 


wii u will do well to get to 20M untis not 30M. 

And it was in Nintys control. Nothing was stopping them being the creators of the iphone. The evolution was from handheld gaming devices to smartphones or tablets. Ninty just weren't as smart as apple and now find them selves in a hard place. 


But there console still would have been less popular had they created the iphone. Makes no difference.

Based on history at the end of Nintendo's peak sales year for a console they have reached  50%ish of lifetime sales. So right now next year is looking like peak year for wiiu and will end the year around 15 to 16 million. Double that and lifetime sales are around 30 million.  I'd love to know what a sub 20 million projection is based on.


I'm guessing that it's based on logic :P

The WiiU is tracking behind the GameCube which itself sold 21 million units. Additionally, third party support has all but ceased and Nintendo has very few major franchises that haven't already made an appearance on the system. There is absolutely no way that the WiiU will come anywhere near 30 million sales.

It doesn't need 3rd part cross platform support.. It's getting plenty of 3rd part support in develping games though.  Smash Bros and Star Fox come to mind. If the wiiu wasn't gaining steam each year i would agree with a sub 20 million assessment but by the end of next year if the same level of growth continues it will be well beyond the gamecube pace.

It's one thing to say that a major franchise has been tapped.  But Zelda hasn't really been tapped yet. Remakes and spinoffs don't rival a brand new Zelda game. Nintendo is also bringing back some major franchises like Star Fox and developing new major franchises like Splatoon and Xenoblade. And they still haven't done an Animal Crossing or Metroid which seem to be 2016 franchises. Nintendo is supporting the wiiu with better software than it did with gamecube. Next year they already have something like 12 exclusives announced. I just don't see the system not selling faster next year than it did this year. Strategically the wiiu is in a much better position than the gamecube to have longer legs. It's a second console and only becomes a better value propisiton as a second console as time progresses.


The WiiU isn't getting plenty of third party support, I can't think of any major upcoming third party WiiU games.

Smash Bros isn't exactly having a massive impact and I doubt that Star Fox, a game which sells 3-4 million units at best is going to do much either.

The WiiU is going to need to gain a lot more steam just to keep up with the GameCube, let alone surpass it by 9 million units.

I already accounted for Zelda which has never been a blockbuster. Zelda is nowhere near as popular as Mario Kart which itself did little to, excuse my pun, drive WiiU sales.

Xenoblade is not very popular and it had virtually no impact on WiiU adoption. I also doubt that Splatoon will do much better.

Metroid games sell 2-3 million at best meaning that they too have little to no impact. It's a pity because I love the series (except for Other M) but it's a fact.

Animal Crossing is pretty popular on handheld but that success never really translated to console. Even if the next installment exceeded expectations I wouldn't expect a miracle.

Sorry but I just don't see anything turning around the WiiU's fortunes, neither a price cut nor Nintendo's stable of B-listers (strictly from a popularity standpoint, not quality). I'd love to see Nintendo surprise us with a wildly successful Pokemon MMO or a Metroid re-re-re-reboot that actually achieves mass market appeal but I'm not counting on it. Barring such unexpected developments I'm expecting the WiiU to settle down at around 18 million lifetime.