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Personally I'm thinking more like 17.5M at this point. VG Chartz still has it at under 10M for when Sony announced they'd sold well over 10M back in August, at least 10.2 seems likely for then, if not 10.5M for Gamescom. I think Destiny week is too low as well, should be 200K higher, Driveclub week could add another 200K on top of that and finally I think the week COD AW came out should be far higher, at least another 300K.

Assuming a low end figure I think VG Chartz is still out by 1M units, on the higher it could be 1.3M, so IMO it's already sold over 16M, maybe 16.5 by the week ending the 22nd of November. Black Friday is going to add another million more units, so I could see Sony announcing they've sold 17.5M.