Man Bear Pig if you're going to do a prediction you should at least consider the fact Vgchartz have over tracked november. SO when MS game out in full spin with their triples sales, VGchartz over tracked X1 going into November.
I'd be fairly confident that even if X1 wins NPD it will show VGchartz over tracked it for the first 3 weeks of November. I believe the momentum from the firesales has slowed and PS4 could take BF meaning November between just the PS4 and X1 will be very close. I'd be shocked if X1 NPS is bigger than Wii U plus PS4 and likewise be shocked if PS4 won BF by enough to put it higher than X1 plus Wii U.