PS4: 21 million sold by the of 2014? The statistics No.

[colafitte]

soony_xbone_U said:

colafitte said:

 

I don't think there will be more than 1m ps4 on shelves in January. More than 1'5m on shelves for holiday season is normal, and after holiday season is when less consoles on shelves there are, so less than 1m in just January is normal too. In my opinion, if PS4 sells 20'5 aprox., 21'5 m shipped is more than enough.

And that 3x markets you say is 80-90% of the sales from over that 100 you say there are right now, so there's no such difference compared to last year.

I talked about the number of different markets. Not the size. That should be obvious. But if u have to send consoles to 100 different markets compared to 30, you need more on shelfs, and more on your container ships. It all adds up with the other stuff.

Right now, the Ps3 and X360 both have about 1.5m on "shelfs" alone.
So 1.5m for the Ps4 this holiday season on shelfs + wahrehouse + transit is the absolut minimum possible.
If you want the Ps4 to sell through 21m until the end of 2014, the Ps4 need to average over 1m units sold in December per week.

If u sell over one million units per week, u want only 1.5m only shelfs? Sony don't want to sell out again. They need a safety buffer.


Sony will ship 19.5 - 21.5m Ps4 end of 2014 and will sell through 17.5 - 19m (my guestimate)

Look, I took my shipment numbers from what I thought PS4 was going to sell, not otherwise, so if PS4 shipments are not enough for you, then PS4 will probably ship more than 21'5. 

Ok then?