soony_xbone_U said:
colafitte said:
I'm happy more people is recognizing the patterns rightly for ps4....about time!
I already said something similar back in October, even going to March Fiscal year.
colafitte on 31 October 2014
- PS4 13'5 m shipped - Wii 13'17 m shipped during their first 4 quarters.
- Wii shipped 6'97m during its 5th quarter (2007 holiday season), and 4'31m during the 6th quarter (Jan-Mar 2008). Total shipments for Wii before April 2008 were 24'45 m.
- PS4 probably sold around 12'5m units before October, from that 13'5m shipment units. Add around 750k-1m for October, so right now around 13'2-13'5m sold to consumers before November. I'm expecting around 3m PS4 sold in Nov and around 4m sold in Dec, so basically I expect 7m during Nov-Dec. In the end I expect around 20'5 m sold to consumers before 2015. To reach that they have to at least ship 21'0-21'5 m.
- Considering all the games that are coming 1st half of 2015, another 3-4m units sold until April is almost a guarantee, so they need to ship around 4-5m more. In the end I see around 25-26m units shipped before April 2015 for PS4.
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6794916
So, I agree with OP in this.
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If we want 20.5m sold through consoles, u have to ship at least 22m or more. (If u dont wan't shortages and don't want to use costy shipments by plane like last year for Sony)
The higher your weekly sales, the higher ur stock has to be.
Stores need 1 - 2 weeks of sales on theire shelfs alone
Wholesaler and distributor need x week of sales in the warehouse until the next shipment form oversea arrive
You need between 2 - 6 weeks to get ur shipments form prodution to destination.
You need about 1 1/2 month of sales on shelfs, at the wharehouse and in transit.
If u don't belive me here are the last year Sony figures:
4.5m shipped Ps4 end of December 2014, while 4.2m sold through.
The weekly sales baseline was way lower that days, than this year.
The Ps4 was only available in 3x markets compared to over 100 this holiday season
The Ps4 was completley sold out in nearly every region
Sony used plane to get the shipments faster to destination
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I don't think there will be more than 1m ps4 on shelves in January. More than 1'5m on shelves for holiday season is normal, and after holiday season is when less consoles on shelves there are, so less than 1m in just January is normal too. In my opinion, if PS4 sells 20'5 aprox., 21'5 m shipped is more than enough.
And that 3x markets you say is 80-90% of the sales from over that 100 you say there are right now, so there's no such difference compared to last year.
