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Soundwave said:

Basically there's three categories of Wii U software: 

1.) Decent to Good Sales: 2D Mario, 3D Mario, Smash Brothers (Mario Fighting), Mario Kart are the main things that will sell on the Wii U, with some room left over for Zelda. Future home of: Mario Party 10, Mario Maker, Legend of Zelda U. 

2.) Poor/Low Sales: Donkey Kong Country, Pikmin 3, Wii Fit, Sonic Colors, Rayman didn't sell great. Wii Party U got saved by being bundled in Japan for a while. Future home to: Yarn Yoshi, Captain Toad, Splatoon, Xenoblade. 

3. ) Bomba Sales: Bayonetta, Call of Duty, Batman, Fatal Frame, Wonderful 101, Assassin's Creed, Need For Speed, Wii Sports Club, etc. are full-on bombs. Future home to: Devil's Third, Project: Cars (if that actually even comes out). 

I suppose if you want to pretend that Bayonetta and Mario should have the same sales expectations, this would be the case.

If the current VGC sales ratio of Bayo 2 : 3D World substituted Mario Galaxy's sales for the latter, Bayo 2 would have 1.6 million.

Soundwave said:

new IP like Star Fox or GoldenEye

I must say I found this amusing, since it was actually an adaptation of a film that was part of a 35-year-old franchise, which was itself an adaptation of a 45-year-old series of novels.