PS4 will probably get to around 16 Million by 1 January 2015

[binary solo]

Puppyroach said:

Ninsect said:

Puppyroach said:
I Think PS4 will reach roughly 16M, and X1 around 10M.

So PS4 will sell 1.6m from here and XB1 2.4m? 

It depends on if you believe the VGC numbers or not. They stood at 13.5M shipped at the end of September, and I don't think they have reached that number just yet. I am thinking PS4 is at about 13M sell through right now, X1 is probably more or less correct. If we are talking shipments, then that is another story.

If we go by the low end of monthly Ps4 shipments as of 15 Nov the shipment number is a minimum of 14.7 million. So 13 million sell through LTD as of 15 Nov is also a minimum. But if Sony managed to ramp up production capacity and ship 2 million per month from beginning of Oct, the shipments could be as high as 16 million as of 15 Nov which means 14.4M sell through is also possible. TBH I am surprised at the size of PS4's adjustment and I think VGC may have overshot. Imo the market is very predictable unless something disruptive happens, like a price cut, and we had the 10 million sell through announcement as a benchmark.

First year on the market Sept-dec ~ Jan to Jul. Can be close to 1.5x but that's about asbhigh as it is likelihood go. So the most probable range based on the 10 million sell through announcement is 16.5 million to 19.5 million. 16.5 is about 1:1, 19.5 is about 1:1.5.

Assuming sales patterns remain consistent with previous generations next year the sales ratio will be about 2:1. Possibly more if Ps4 gets a $100 price cut late next year.