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Arkaign on 20 November 2014
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Welp, I no longer think X1 can take November without one hell of a fight. Which means Dec is definitely gone in terms of hitting #1. The baseline from October just shows low overall demand imho, and I think the new $349 baseline after the initial bump will be an improvement in terms of % vs. PS4's same-era baseline, but the initial bump for the $349 and $399 (COD) bundles seemed to really be strong for about 1-2 weeks, then tail off pretty quickly.

It really does seem like MS decided to go all-in early, I doubt anything left is in store for a surprise other than $299 becoming a common special price for December. It was a brave move, but maybe a little mis-timed, because the holiday shopping hysteria doesn't really ignite until BF.

I'm not ruling anything out, but at the beginning of the month when Sony was just sitting on $399 with no announcements I thought X1 would take November by 5-15% pretty easily, and I no longer think that's probable. A near-tie is more likely, depending on how huge the PS4 bundle sales are for BF. And Dec should be a walk imho. Halo MCC is obviously not selling like a normal mainline Halo entry (huge sales to diehards with X1s, but not a huge draw to the larger marketplac), AC:U is a borderline disaster for the series in terms of PR, SO is already buried, FH2 was a bomb, and COD is weirdly the most positive thing I can think of for XB1 this fall, though that's still sort of a wash.

GTAV looks primed to prove me wrong and sell gangbusters once again. I was sure that saturation on 7th gen would throw cold water on it, but it looks primed to be a top 5 game for holiday 2014, and inevitably boosting PS4 adoption.

I don't think either PS4 or X1 will come close to 1M for November. I do expect 1m+ for PS4 in December, and close to 1m for x1 in December, due to good deals from Microsoft. It's just not enough to overturn the inertia that Sony has going for them in the big picture. The 'my friends play on ' tide appears to be set for 8th gen. All we do now is wait for receipts.