360 Numbers don't add up!

[Erik Aston]

Monty said: @Erik Aston - thanks for the well thought out and informative reply. It was an interesting read. The only thing we'd probably differ in our stats is that I was taking the 4.5 million in US sales for 2006 (as reported by NPD, and linked to twice in this thread) and adding in the 660k from 2005 to get 5.1 million US sales. If the rest of NA is 10% as you say, then it would be 5.6+ million for NA. I guess we'll have to see when final numbers are released.

I'm guessing that 4.5 million number (which, according to your link, came from "Lazard Capital's Colin Sebastian regular analyst preview of NPD's North American charts"), was actually an NA number, and Mr. Sebastian misspoke when he said "US." It would be very consistent with what vgcharts is reporting so far for overall 2006 NA sales, which is 3.1 million through November, plus that 1.4+ million December number. According to the list you posted earlier (providing this link: http://forum.pcvsconsole.com/viewthread.php?tid=11067 ), NPD is only reporting 2.8 million US sales in 2006 through November, meaning for that 4.5 million number to be US only, there would need to be 1.7 million US sales in December only. I already showed how an NA Nov to Dec jump from 567,000 to 1.484 million would be an impressive 262% increase, and if you believe that 4.5 million number is for US only, it would require a 510,000 to 1.7 million jump, an astronomical 333% increase. Given that a 4.5 million NA total for 2006 would be consistent with where vgcharts is headed, more consistent with the month-by-month NPD US numbers you posted as well as other numbers, and that the link you posted cited its source as a preview of the North American charts, I think a more likely answer is that your source made an error. We'll find out on the 11th; no need to discuss this further until then.

@TalonMan - Once again, I'm sorry my pointing out that vgcharts was 400k in NA didn't meet your standards of being noteworthy. I'm still confused as to how you continue to "rely" on vgcharts although it is nearly a half a million off in a very easy to track area? I guess your just one of those people that swallow's everything, questions nothing, and is fine if vgcharts is off by a million or so... although, it's probably highly likely that the 360 isn't your console of choice, which is why you could care less about this difference. I'll just say that if the 400k means nothing to you, then quit spending your time in this thread giving me long winded excuses and saying we shouldn't care about the 400k difference. I do care, that's why I'm here.

Once again, 400,000 is a very significant amount to be off. But it is insignificant until we know the exact period of time we're talking about. Why even talk about it until we see vgcharts actual December estimate?

@bcsd - Thanks for the 10.4 million sold information! It's definitely likely that MS means "sold to retailers", however that would definitely prove the 360 is above 9 million, and that the 8.1 million cited by vgcharts is complete bunk.

How would that prove anything? Sorry, but we can't assume there is a certain amount sold to end users based only on reported sold to retailers numbers.

@Cryoakira - I definitely agree... vgcharts needs a date as to when its figures are accurate through. If it's currently showing stats through mid-Dec we may all be on the same page (as far as 360 stats go) and just not know it.

Well... They'll have a date when they report December numbers... They're probably throwing every little bit of data they have into those front page estimates, regardless of date... So let's drop it until at least the 11th, when we can talk December numbers.

@UltimateNinja9 - I'm not sure why everybody brings up nexgenwars into this thread? I've never backed nexgenwars and frequently said I believe them to be as every bit as screwy as vgcharts. I'd start a new thread if you want to debate vgcharts vs NGW... it doesn't really belong here. However, I will note one thing... it's been a LONG time since I've been 18 years old, but I remember being a smart lad then, and I do know some pretty smart 18 year olds. Age alone doesn't mean much, and I would never use that as an indicator that somebody is full of crap.

One glance at the amount of data nexgenwars has should reveal how worthwhile of a source they are.