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I think you're overestimating the MCC. Most people who will buy that already own an XB1 so that game won't push that many consoles. COD bundle is too expensive to do any real damage and AC doesn't sell well on Xbox.

Sure MS has lots of bundles and an exclusive that will sell well. But Sony has the momentum. The word of mouth. The multiplatform advantage. And we still don't even know what kind of deals Sony will offer in November. A $350 PS4 with a game on Black Friday doesn't sound too crazy.