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AnthonyW86 said:
According to VGChartz tracking by 120k, witch means a virtual tie. However Mario Kart gained a lot of populairity on the Wii, where it outsold Smash 3:1(though MK Wii was more heavily bundled).

"more heavily bundled"? I don't recall any kind of even-remotely-official Brawl bundle. And you speak as though the Wii versions were the most recent versions, when they're obviously not. Mario Kart Wii sold nearly 35 million copies... yet Mario Kart 7 is only at 10 million (plus digital) - Mario Kart Wii sold over 13 million in 2008 alone. And Mario Kart 8 is only at 2.75 million (plus digital)... unless you believe that Smash isn't even going to make 1 million (and if you do, then you're delusional), you don't expect MK8 to outsell Smash U 3:1.

All signs point to Wii U being more like Gamecube than Wii in terms of sales patterns (as in, who is buying it, proportions between types of games, etc). So we should be looking at Gamecube to get a sense of sales.

Furthermore, you are ignoring the question of who is buying each game. Mario Kart has always had strong synergy with classic Mario games (that is, NSMB Wii and Mario Kart Wii, Super Mario Sunshine and Mario Kart Double Dash, etc). Many of those who bought Mario Kart 8 would have already had a system for Super Mario 3D World or NSMB U. On the other hand, many Smash fans are big on fighting games and the insanely fast-paced multiplayer of Smash itself moreso than Mario or anything like that. Thus, it makes sense to expect it to sell to a lot of people who wouldn't otherwise have bought a Wii U.