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OttoniBastos said:
PS4 shipped 13,5 until end of september right?

Last year PS4 sold to consumers(with supply constraint) 4,2 millions with half november+december.

Lets be conservative and say that PS4 will sell in october the basic 1 million(~1,5 shipped).This puts PS4 at 15 millions shipped at end of october.

and lets be conservative again and say that Ps4 will sell 4,2 millions(november+december) again with supply constraint(sold ~= shipped)

this puts PS4 at ~19,2 millions shipped.

Notice that i'm being way conservative with numbers.

Now i ask you guys,is 20 million shipped at december31 that much far from reality?

I'm guessing that they'll ship over 20 million for sure. PS4 needs to ship more than 6.5m in the last Q to make it past 20m. So far this calender year exactly 9 million PS4s have been shipped, consoles usually ship around half of their year's total in the last Q of the year. This would suggest PS4 should ship close to 9m in the last Q. Shipping less than 6.5m would be a complete disaster. 20m shipped seems to be a lock