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PS4 shipped 13,5 until end of september right?

Last year PS4 sold to consumers(with supply constraint) 4,2 millions with half november+december.

Lets be conservative and say that PS4 will sell in october the basic 1 million(~1,5 shipped).This puts PS4 at 15 millions shipped at end of october.

and lets be conservative again and say that Ps4 will sell 4,2 millions(november+december) again with supply constraint(sold ~= shipped)

this puts PS4 at ~19,2 millions shipped.

Notice that i'm being way conservative with numbers.

Now i ask you guys,is 20 million shipped at december31 that much far from reality?