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Profit is not just about sales. Nintendo now make a profit off each Wii U and 3DS sold, whereas I believe Sony make losses on PS4 and Vita hardware sales. Therefore they rely on software sales to generate the profit. Nintendo make profit from both hardware and software (and some of their first party software can be very profitable). Though I haven't looked at Sony's numbers in detail, I presume the point here is that Playstation are turning over significantly more than Nintendo but at a much lower profit margin.

I think Sony will edge Nintendo out but the fact that it's close at all shows that ultimately this business is about way more complicated than who's winning the sales war. I have no idea about Microsoft.